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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-23 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230242 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA guidance. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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