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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-23 10:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230840 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated center. The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in agreement with surface data over the Gulf. The cyclone should remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next day or so. However, since the system is not well organized, only slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model guidance at this time. The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/8 kt. This is more or less consistent with observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf. A continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 26.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON COAST 72H 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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