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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 4A
2024-10-02 19:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021732 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 96.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 96.2 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (5 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue through Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today through Thursday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-02 16:54:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:54:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:54:11 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-10-02 16:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 021452 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Kirk continues to intensify this morning. On geostationary satellite imagery convective bands continue to rotate around the eye seen earlier in microwave imagery, although this feature hasn't shown up yet on visible imagery. The subjective Dvorak estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and blending these estimates with somewhat lower objective intensity estimates, the intensity has been raised to 75 kt this advisory. Kirk continues moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. A gradual slowdown at a similar heading is expected over the next day or two as the hurricane remains steered by a subtropical ridge centered to its northeast. At the end of the week, Kirk will find itself between an increasingly eroded ridge to its east, and a digging upper-level trough to its west, and it is likely Kirk will be steered between these features, recurving northward, and then north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the prior one, especially over the next several days, but is a little further northwest thereafter, blending the prior track forecast to the consensus aids TCVA and HCCA, though in general the track spread among the track guidance remains relatively low. Kirk appears poised to intensify quite a bit in the short-term now that shear has decreased as the hurricane remains over very warm ocean waters and plenty of deep-layer moisture. These favorable conditions should promote notable strengthening, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane in 24 h, and peaking as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Thereafter, southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west could begin to increase, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is a little higher than earlier, owing to somewhat higher intensity guidance aids this cycle, but still remains lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HAFS-B) but is roughly in line with HCCA this cycle. Kirk is also expected to continue growing in size with a larger than average radius of both tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii as it recurves into the open Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.0N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics