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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-22 16:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 345 WTNT41 KNHC 221432 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 It appears that the depression's best day is behind it, as the cloud pattern has become less organized this morning. The low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from the warming cloud tops in what remains of the deep convection, which is displaced to the east by nearly 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, consistent with a T1.0 classification from TAFB. Given that the strong shear is expected to continue and the depression will be moving through a relatively dry environment, the cyclone should gradually spin down and become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate by 48 hours. However, I would not be surprised if either or both of these occurred sooner. The center of the depression hasn't moved much during the past few hours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 280/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered westward to west-northwestward by a low-level ridge. The new NHC track forecast is north of the previous one but remains along the southern edge of the guidance envelope given doubts about how much latitude such a shallow system will gain prior to dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.2N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.0N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 56.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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