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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130839 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Recently, however, some new convection is forming closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization of the system may be taking place. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these agencies still support 30 kt. Since the shear is not expected to increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is still forecast in the short term. Beginning around 2-3 days, southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus. The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. The system should continue to move west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3 a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period. The official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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