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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-04 22:49:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042049 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 130SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 112.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 32.3N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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