je.st
news
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-13 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130233 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013 THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N 124W...SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND START TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART AFTER 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT... THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE REACHING COLDER WATER. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY DO NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.1N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||