je.st
news
Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-04 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041455 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS. MODERATE-TO-STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODERATE...LIKELY INHIBITING ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ENOUGH RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE DEPRESSION OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT THAT TIME. EXCEPT FOR THE THE GFDL AND ITS ENSEMBLE...WHICH BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO MEXICO... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS BEEN A TOP PERFORMER THIS SEASON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.4N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.6N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.9N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||