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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-07-04 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042047 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING BANDING SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS...HOWEVER...SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM LACKED ANY INNER CORE FEATURES...WITH A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUGGEST IT WILL SOON BECOME A STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...310/9. A WEAK RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXACTLY WHEN THE DEPRESSION MAKES THAT TURN IS UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE FORECAST CHANGE REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND A WARNING COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT IF A NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST CONTINUES. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS COULD GET MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THEN IT WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING COOLER WATER. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 19.1N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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