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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-07 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 Recent ASCAT data indicate that the tropical depression has an elongated circulation and is still producing maximum winds around 30 kt. Although deep convection has been increasing in coverage during the day, it is not all that organized and is primarily confined to the eastern and southern semicircles. In addition, dry air appears to be wrapping into the western part of the circulation. Since the cyclone's structure has not yet improved, and the system is about to move over the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, it may take a little more time before significant strengthening can occur. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models, which should have a good handle on the ambient environment, do not show significant deepening of the cyclone for another 48 hours or so. Therefore, the NHC official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first couple of days, with the depression possibly not becoming a tropical storm until tomorrow. More significant strengthening is expected after 48 hours, but even that could be tempered by interaction with Blas's cold wake. The NHC intensity forecast is at the low end of the guidance through 48 hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The scatterometer data showed that the low-level center is located a little farther south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is now 275/7 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from northern Mexico is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward course for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, the ridge is expected to weaken a bit, which will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The NHC official track forecast was shifted slightly southward during the first three days to account for the updated initial position. Otherwise, the guidance remains tightly clustered, and there is high confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.4N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 12.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 13.0N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 13.1N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 12.9N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.0N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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