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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-06-19 22:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192058 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has maximum winds near 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt most of the day. The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States. This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24 hours, or perhaps sooner. The official NHC track forecast is close to the GFS and ECMWF models. The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land. Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it interacts with rugged terrain. Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within the state of Veracruz. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
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