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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-06 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME PERSISTENT AND BETTER ORGANIZED IN A BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SO STRONG BY DAYS 4-5 THAT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN RESULTING IN DISSIPATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS BUT IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEWLY FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. IN RESPONSE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER WEAKENING. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 BUT GIVES THE ECMWF MODEL MORE WEIGHT ON DAYS 4-5. THIS TREND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DRASTICALLY AND BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 12.9N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 13.2N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 13.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 14.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.9N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 16.0N 126.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 16.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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