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Tropical Depression Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-17 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection continues to decrease near Fausto, with only a small area remaining near and south of the center. Satellite estimates are dropping and support making Fausto a 30-kt tropical depression on this advisory, which also matches the 25-30 kt ASCAT data from earlier. The cyclone is rapidly moving over cold water, and should cease producing deep convection overnight. Thus further weakening is likely, and remnant low status is expected on Monday, with a slow decay over cold waters thereafter as shown in the global models. Fausto is moving northwestward at around 15 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The storm should turn westward tomorrow and south-of-west on Tuesday due to the orientation of the lower- to middle-level ridge. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is not far from the eastern Pacific model consensus aid, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.1N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 24.1N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 24.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 24.0N 131.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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