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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080243 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has changed little in organization during the past several hours. While the system is producing good convective banding in the eastern semicircle, the convection near the center is currently poorly organized, and there is no evidence that the inner core has consolidated. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. A combination of conventional and 37 GHz microwave satellite imagery suggests that the center is farther east than previously thought, so the new initial position is about a half degree east of the previous advisory position. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/5. A large mid-level anticyclone is located over the southwestern United States with a ridge extending southeastward across Mexico. The anticyclone should shift a little eastward during the next few days, with the ridge extending southward across Mexico. This evolution should steer the tropical cyclone generally northwestward for the next several days, followed by a more westward motion as the cyclone weakens over cooler water and is steered by low-level easterly flow. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the consensus models. However, the more eastward initial position required an eastward shift to the forecast track. It should be noted that some erratic motion is possible until the cyclone develops a better-defined inner core. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until the system reaches the 26-deg-C SST isotherm in 60-72 h, with the main restraining factor being the current lack of internal organization. The intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in about 48 h. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after 60-72 h due to the cooler water and dry air entrainment. The more easterly initial position and the new forecast track require a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Baja California Sur at this time. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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