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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-24 04:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240235 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 Over the past several hours, the low pressure system located around 115W has developed a well-defined surface circulation. The convective pattern has also improved, with a primary band wrapping around the western semicircle of the cyclone, and a secondary band to the southeast and south. The system has therefore been designated as Tropical Depression Five-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Although the lack of deep convection in the northeast quadrant suggests that some moderate easterly wind shear and dry air are present, warm SSTs below the cyclone will likely support slight slight strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours. The depression is forecast to cross a sharp SST gradient and become embedded within a far more stable environment on Monday. This should cause it to lose all deep convection and gradually spin down as a remnant low through the middle of next week. The NHC forecast conservatively shows the system as a tropical cyclone through 72 h, but it could become a remnant low sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the intensity consensus IVCN, and the model guidance is in good agreement that only modest strengthening will occur over the next day or two. The depression has been moving generally northward and the initial motion estimate is 355/8 kt. The dynamical models are in good agreement that the shallow cyclone will move continue moving northward for the next 24-36 h, steered by a weak low to mid-level cut-off low to its west. After that time, the weakening system should become increasingly steered by the low-level tradewind flow, causing it to turn toward the around day 4. The official forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and closely follows the track consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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