je.st
news
Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-14 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Overnight scatterometer data indicate that the circulation of the system was open on the northwestern side. High-resolution GOES-16 1-min visible data indicate that the low is now closed, with a well-enough defined circulation center. Since there is plenty of banded convection, this system is being designated as a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt is based off the overnight scatterometer data. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/5 kt. A weak mid-level ridge over Mexico is forecast to break down by tomorrow, leaving the depression in an area of light steering currents. Much of the model guidance linger the system just south of the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days until the cyclone gets drawn northward into a larger trough currently seen over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of this poleward motion, however, with the UKMET, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models faster than the rest of the guidance. This seems like a pretty clear case of staying near the model consensus, given the weak steering flow that makes it nearly impossible to choose one model over another one. Thus, the official forecast shows a slow northward motion, near the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE, and it should be emphasized that the forecast timing of landfall is subject to large changes in the future. The system is not particularly well organized at the moment, with a few swirls seen in the visible imagery rotating around the larger gyre. After the low consolidates, light-to-moderate shear with very warm waters, and high mid-level humidity should lead to steady intensification. This is a tricky forecast, however, since land is so close to the north, which would prevent much strengthening. The official forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane guidance, a bit lower than the model consensus since the HWRF keeps the cyclone well offshore (unlike the official prediction), leading to a stronger storm. It has been an active early part of the eastern Pacific season. This is the 2nd earliest 4th tropical cyclone on record in the basin during the satellite era (1966-present), only 6 hours behind the previous record in 1974. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.5N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.1N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 16.3N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||