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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-06-15 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Tropical Depression Four-E remains very disorganized. Last-light visible imagery showed that multiple low-level swirls are rotating around a mean center. IR imagery and radar data from the Mexican radar in Acapulco indicate that deep convection is largely limited to a broken band wrapping around the eastern half of the depression, with only a single burst of deep convection recently observed near the estimated center. Given the disorganized nature of the depression, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, though it is possible this is generous. Little change has been made to the intensity forecast. Although SSTs exceed 30 deg C along the forecast track, moderate vertical wind shear, close proximity to land, and the lack of an inner core should limit the intensification rate. Rapid weakening is likely following landfall, and the system is now forecast to dissipate within 96 h. The official forecast remains near the corrected consensus aid HCCA. The disorganized nature of the depression makes it difficult to identify and track a surface center, so the initial position and motion estimates are very uncertain. All of the global models indicate that the system will meander near the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, ultimately drifting northward toward land. The NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the previous track advisory. It is worth noting that confidence in both the track and intensity forecast is low. It is possible that the surface center could reform one or more times over the next couple of days, either bringing the system inland sooner than currently forecast or keeping it over water longer than expected. Large changes to the intensity or track forecasts may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.6N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.8N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.2N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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