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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-07-13 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130234 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 The depression looks less organized than a few hours ago, with the apparent low-level center displaced a fair distance from the mid-level circulation to the southwest. In addition, deep convection has decreased markedly during that time, although a new burst is forming in the southwestern quadrant. The initial wind speed is kept 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates. The cyclone probably only has the convective maximum period overnight to become a tropical storm before a combination of strong shear, cooling SSTs, and upper-level convergence start a steady weakening. In fact, the depression is forecast by all of the dynamical guidance to lose deep convection near or just after 24 hours. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is lowered 5 kt from the previous one, similar to the consensus, and the remnant low timing is pushed up to 36h as well. An uncertain motion is 300/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should gradually turn the depression westward during the next couple of days with a slight increase in forward speed. Models have come into better agreement on the track of the depression, not too far from the previous NHC track prediction, so the new forecast is basically the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 15.8N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.7N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.5N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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