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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-06-15 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 The center of the depression has been difficult to locate, although GOES-16 infrared satellite images and radar data from Acapulco suggest that the system as a whole has not moved very much. Deep convection has increased over the past few hours, but it bears little association with the estimated center and is focused primarily where low-level convergence is maximized near the coast. Although some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, moderate northerly shear and the cyclone's proximity to land will likely limit the amount of intensification that can occur. The SHIPS guidance only shows modest strengthening, and the global models don't really deepen the low much, if any, before it moves inland. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA models and is a little lower than the previous forecast at 48 h. A 72-hour point is provided inland for continuity, but the cyclone could dissipate before that time. The depression is currently stationary in a region absent of steering currents. However, as a low- to mid-level trough moves northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas in the coming days, that feature should cause the depression to drift northeastward and then northward, moving inland over southern Mexico between 48-72 hours. The new NHC forecast is slightly east of the previous one, following the preponderance of the available guidance. As noted before, there is lower-than-normal confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts. Changes to the forecast, as well as modifications to the warned areas, could be required in subsequent advisories if the location and size of the cyclone become clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.5N 99.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.8N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.2N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 16.9N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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