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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-06-15 16:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151440 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Radar data from Acapulco, plus satellite and microwave imagery, indicate that the depression has either reformed and/or is moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Overall, the satellite presentation has improved over the past several hours, with a large band of convection in the southeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt for this advisory, and perhaps scatterometer data will give us a better look at the wind field this afternoon. Since the center has shifted to the north-northeast, the timing of landfall along the coast of Mexico has accelerated, with the bulk of the guidance now suggesting a Saturday landfall rather than Sunday. The official forecast now goes with the faster scenario, close to a cluster of the GFS ensemble mean and HMON models and the eastern Pacific track consensus aid TVCE. While the environmental conditions still appear to be conducive for strengthening, the depression has less time to intensify because of the faster landfall timing. Consequently, the intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, but is a little higher than the model consensus. Although this system is expected to have only a low wind threat, there is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.8N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 17.2N 98.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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