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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 There are no changes of significance to report on the depression or its official forecast. The system is still strongly sheared from the east, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the cyclone's intensity at 30 kt. First-light visible imagery revealed that the depression's center is still exposed to the northeast of a small area of deep convection. All of the global and hurricane dynamical models indicate that the system will begin to weaken later today and could dissipate as early as late Sunday or early Monday due to the combination of a dry near-storm environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. There is no change to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. The cyclone will likely turn westward as it weakens and loses its deep convection later today or tonight, and then continue on a westward heading until it dissipates in a couple of days. The NHC forecast continues to closely follow the track model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the GFS model which has performed well for the depression so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 18.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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