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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-13 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132031 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression consists of a small low-level swirl, exposed to the east of a shrinking area of convection. The initial winds have been maintained at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. For the moment, the system appears to be on its way to becoming a remnant low with convection gradually decreasing, just as most of the dynamical models predicted during the last day or so. There has been no important change in the guidance, and the cyclone is still forecast to gradually weaken during the next couple of days and could become a remnant low as early as tomorrow afternoon. The remnant low could then last for another day or so after that, but should open into a trough and dissipate early next week. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, but is forecast to turn toward the west tonight as it weakens and loses its convection. While there is still some spread in the models, especially regarding how far westward the remnant low will make it before it dissipates, they all generally agree on this forecast. The NHC forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is largely unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.8N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.1N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 18.4N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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