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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-15 04:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018 191 WTPZ44 KNHC 150238 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure area that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has acquired enough organized deep convection for the system to be declared a tropical depression. Although the convection had waned a little during the day, recent satellite imagery indicates that convection near the well-defined center has begun to increase and that outer banding features in the western semicircle have been improving during the past few hours. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 265/12 kt. For the next 72 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward or slightly south of due west along the southern periphery of a broad deep-layer ridge that is located to the north of the depression. The ridge is expected to weaken by 96 hours as a mid-latitude low/trough currently located off the coast of southern California digs southward and then westward during the forecast period. This pattern should allow the cyclone to move west-northward into the weakness in the ridge and start gaining latitude. For this initial forecast of the system, the NHC track lies close to a blend of the consensus track models HCCA and TVCE. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain around 10 kt or less for the next 72 hours or so, with a further decrease on days 4 and 5 when the system moves underneath and/or develops an upper-level anticyclone, conditions that typically favor significant intensification. However, since the circulation envelope is currently elongated northeast-to-southwest, it will take a couple of days for the system to become more symmetrical, which could then enhance the strengthening process. By that time, however, sea- surface temperatures and mid-level humidity values will be marginal for significant intensification to occur. As a result, only slow but steady strengthening is indicated in this first intensity forecast, which closely follows the HCCA intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 10.8N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 10.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 10.8N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 11.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 15.6N 142.8W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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