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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-11-06 15:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061453 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024 The National Hurricane Center has been tracking a well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern Mexican coast. Beginning around 2300 UTC on Tuesday, deep convection formed over the low-level circulation and cold cloud tops have persisted for over 15 hours. TAFB has classified this system with a T2.0, indicating that is has reached the necessary requirements of maintaining deep, organized convection. Therefore, the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt. Scatterometer data is expected later today which should provide a better intensity estimate. The depression is drifting northeastward at 3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge is building to the north of the cyclone and expected to turn the depression eastward later today. The system should briefly accelerate and turn more east-southeastward to southeastward on Thursday before drifting back to the east-southeast on Friday in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Surrounding dry mid-level humidities and moderate vertical wind shear seem to be the limiting factors preventing the depression from any significant strengthening. Global models indicate there should be a brief period in about day or so that the deep-layer vertical wind shear should relax slightly and possibly allow for a little strengthening. The depression is expected to lose its organized deep convection over the weekend and open into a trough. However, there is a possibility this occurs sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-11-06 15:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 061452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 9 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 12(22) 2(24) 2(26) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HAVANA 50 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HAVANA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLE OF PINES 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-11-06 15:52:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 061452 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics