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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-21 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 211456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 84.1W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula north and west of Cancun to Dzilam. The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla. The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands of Honduras * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 84.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands of Honduras today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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