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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-04 10:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040842 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Gil overnight with the low-level center of the cyclone becoming even more exposed. The main convective mass has also decreased in size with a new smaller burst of convection recently developing to the northeast of the center, however satellite imagery shows that the new burst is already beginning to shear away. A recent ASCAT overpass revealed peak winds of around 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been lowered somewhat conservatively to 30 kt. The strong shear over the cyclone is not expected to abate during the next 24 to 36 hours, and this, along with dry mid-level air, should continue to cause Gil to weaken over the next day or so. The global model unanimously show the cyclone degenerating into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours, and so does the updated NHC forecast. Gil is moving westward or 275/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving generally westward during the next day or so while a low- to mid-level ridge remains to its north. The official track forecast is again close to the previous advisory and the latest HFIP corrected model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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