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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-08-04 22:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Gil has been devoid of deep convection for about 9 hours now, and if convection does return soon, then the system will be declared a post-tropical remnant low on the next advisory. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and a 25-kt surface wind vector in a recent 1835Z ASCAT-B scatterometer edge pass that caught the northwestern portion of the circulation. Continued weakening is expected after Gil's post-tropical transistion, and the system will likely dissipate by late Monday. The initial motion estimate remains 270/09 kt. Gil is embedded within the easterly trade wind flow, and the cyclone is forecast to maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36 hours or so. The official track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.0N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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