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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-07-29 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 728 WTPZ43 KNHC 290837 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Gilma continues to generate convection to the east of the exposed low-level center despite the ongoing 30 kt or more of westerly vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40 kt range, and the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on these data and the unchanged organization since the last advisory. The initial motion is now 280/13. Gilma is expected to move westward and eventually south of westward during the next 2-3 days in the low-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge to the north. There has been a slight southward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and the forecast track is thus nudged a little southward. The new track continues to lie close to the various consensus models. An upper-level trough located over the cyclone has been providing support for the central convection to persist despite the shear. The large-scale models forecast that Gilma will move west of the trough axis during the next 12-24 h, which will expose the tropical cyclone to 40-50 kt northwesterly upper-level winds and an environment of upper-level convergence. These developments should bring an end to the central convection and cause Gilma to decay to a remnant low. The remnants of the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-72 h as indicated by the large-scale models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.1N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.1N 140.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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