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Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 36
2013-09-19 10:34:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190834 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS LIMITED TO A CLUSTER OF CELLS LOCATED 100-200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS SHOWING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HUMBERTO OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 36 HOURS. IF IT DOES LAST THAT LONG...HUMBERTO SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS. A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED...BUT THAT NOW PUTS HUMBERTO ABOUT A DEGREE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. REGARDLESS...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND 7 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION...BUT OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 33.0N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 34.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 36.3N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 38.6N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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