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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-05 16:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051434 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 After an earlier brief burst of thunderstorm activity northeast of the center around 0600Z, associated convection since then has been on a rapid decline and warming of the cloud tops which now barely reach -30 deg C near the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers of T2.5 and T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and an objective satellite intensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, making Hilda a tropical depression. Further weakening is expected now that Hilda is located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures and moving into a drier and more stable air mass. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate is 305/11 kt, which is faster and a little to the right of the previous advisory motion. This is likely due to the low- and upper-level circulations having decoupled now, owing to the lack of significant convection. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-northwestward for the next 48 hours by a sprawling subtropical ridge located to the north. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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