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Tropical Depression INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-09-17 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170233 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -80C AND COLDER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE...INGRID IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS FRICTION WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS DISRUPTED BY THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF INGRID. INGRID HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING 270/04 KT. THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE HIGH SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED...CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF EASTWARD-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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