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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-08-25 04:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250231 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BECOME DECOUPLED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL IVO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. BY THEN... IVO WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO MEANDER IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.5N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.8N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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