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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-08-25 10:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 DESPITE BEING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C...IVO HAS BEEN PRODUCING A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS... WHICH STILL SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF 25- TO 30-KT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AS IVO MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. IVO HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE BIT OF SPEED AND IS MOVING 335/9 KT...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO STALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOISTURE FROM IVO IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 24.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 25.7N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 27.1N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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