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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-08-25 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON IVO...AS THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. NEARLY ALL OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. IVO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IVO SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8 KT. IVO IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM IVO CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.1N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.1N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 26.7N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 26.7N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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