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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-03 22:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032036 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Ignacio has been devoid of deep convection within 75 nmi of the center for the more than 6 hours now due to strong easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on the continued degradation in the convective pattern and a 1536Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that revealed a patch of 27-kt surface wind vectors south of the center. The small cyclone is expected to meander over water temperatures near 26 deg C for the next 12-24 hours, while the shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt during that time. Owing to these unfavorable environmental conditions, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by late this afternoon, followed by dissipation on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is now 090/03 kt. Ignacio is forecast to make a small clockwise loop within weak low-level steering flow until the system dissipates around 36 hours. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart [ more ]
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