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Tropical Depression JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-09 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 The only areas of deep convection associated with Javier are some small patches of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is embedded within an air mass that is forecast to become drier and more stable with time. Therefore the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours, or sooner. The low is expected to dissipate over the central Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period. The center has become less defined but is believed to be located just offshore between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro, and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/6. Over the next couple of days, Javier or its remnant low should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system. The official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 23.8N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.8N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 26.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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