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Tropical Depression JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-08-29 22:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292047 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DECELERATED AS ANTICIPATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 27.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1800Z 28.2N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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