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Tropical Depression Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-06 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062032 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has waned. A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak believable winds of around 30 kt. The latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass. In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12 hours. These factors should cause continued weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is slightly to the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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