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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-30 04:36:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The exposed center of Joyce is completely devoid of convection, with only a few intermittent bursts noted in satellite imagery during the past several hours. If the system is unable to generate and sustain organized convection soon, it will degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. A partial scatterometer pass indicates that winds over the eastern part of the circulation have diminished, and the satellite intensity estimates have continued to fall this evening. Based on these data and the degraded satellite presentation, Joyce is downgraded to a 30-kt depression. The storm is still moving northwestward (310/5 kt), but is forecast to turn northward soon toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly left of the previous one based on current motion trends. Joyce is surrounded by a dry air mass and is expected to face continued southwesterly shear, making it unlikely for the system to sustain organized deep convection going forward. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows Joyce degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low by late Monday. However, this could occur even sooner if convection does not regenerate overnight. The global models agree that Joyce should open into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 22.3N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-30 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Joyce was located near 22.3, -49.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 11
2024-09-30 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 ...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 49.6W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Joyce is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Monday and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics