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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 51
2014-08-25 16:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, as only a small puff of deep convection remains in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. Dvorak current intensity numbers continue to drop, and a blend of the values from the ADT, SAB, and TAFB indicate that Karina has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about two days. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models and is the same as that from the previous advisory. With Karina's very limited deep convection, finding the center this morning is quite easy in the shortwave infrared imagery. Karina is moving toward the east-southeast at 8 kt. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until absorption of Karina occurs. The track forecast - based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory - is just south of the previous official prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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