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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 52
2014-08-25 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, though a persistent small area of deep convection continues in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A direct hit from the ASCAT-B scatterometer at 1742Z indicates peak winds of about 30 kt, which is the initial intensity of Karina. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear and dry air should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about 36 hours. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and is the same as that from the previous advisory. The visible imagery and the ASCAT-B pass indicate that Karina is moving toward the east at 5 kt. This motion is somewhat unexpected as all of the guidance suggested an east-southeast to southeast heading today. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until Karina is absorbed. The track forecast, based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory, is north of the previous official prediction because of the more poleward initial position than expected earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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