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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 54
2014-08-26 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 Karina continues to produce sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone despite ongoing easterly vertical wind shear caused by the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with a partial ASCAT pass and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a remnant low soon, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in 24 hours or so. The initial motion is 100/3. The cyclone is embedded in westerly flow feeding into Marie, and a general east-southeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.6N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE $$ Forecaster Beven
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