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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 56
2014-08-26 22:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262050 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 After a brief convection hiatus, a small band of thunderstorms has redeveloped in the southwestern quadrant. As a result, tropical depression status and a 25-kt intensity are being maintained for this advisory. Although the easterly shear induced by the large upper-level outflow pattern of Hurricane Marie located well to the northeast of Karina should act to suppress the development of any persistent deep convection after 12 hours, the cyclone could still produce intermittent convective bursts until the system opens up into a trough by Thursday. The initial motion estimate is south-southeastward or 150/04 kt based on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The small circulation of Karina is expected to be advected southeastward and eastward within the southern semicircle of Hurricane Marie over the next 24-36 hours as the the latter cyclone continues to lift out to the northwest. The only change to the previous advisory track has been the addition of points at 24 and 36 hours due to some of the models still depicting Karina as a small but closed remnant low at those times periods. Karina is now the seventh-longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the eastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 16.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 16.7N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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