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Tropical Depression Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-12 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120838 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Kevin Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Kevin is barely a tropical cyclone, as its exposed low-level center has been displaced over 100 n mi northeast of a few small bursts of convection for most of the night. In fact, the last semblance of organized convection with this sheared cyclone ended around 11/2100 UTC. If Kevin is unable to generate any organized convection soon, the system could be declared a post-tropical remnant low later this morning. Overnight ASCAT-A/B passes only showed 25 to 30-kt winds, primarily in the eastern semicircle of Kevin. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, which makes Kevin a tropical depression. Based on recent scatterometer fixes, it appears the broad center of Kevin is moving slightly more west-northwestward than before, or 295/10 kt. A general west-northwest to northwest motion should continue through dissipation as the system moves along the southwestern side of a deep-layer ridge. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly southward from the previous one based on the initial motion adjustment. The cyclone is already north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment during the next couple of days. Thus, the development of new, organized convection near Kevin's center seems very unlikely. The official NHC forecast now shows Kevin degenerating to a remnant low later today, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low should gradually spin down over the next couple of days before dissipating this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.3N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi [ more ]
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