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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-09-16 04:55:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 MANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE MINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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