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Tropical Depression MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-09-18 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 9 13 21 40 NA TROP DEPRESSION 35 35 30 29 32 43 NA TROPICAL STORM 63 57 55 52 44 17 NA HURRICANE X 2 7 6 3 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 7 6 3 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 9(12) 7(19) 2(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 11(12) 11(23) 4(27) 5(32) 1(33) X(33) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 4 22(26) 10(36) 3(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) CULIACAN 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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