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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-23 10:30:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230830 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Mario earned an extra life yesterday but has just about reached its time limit. Satellite images indicate that an earlier burst of deep convection has dissipated, with only a couple of small disorganized blobs left over. If there is no further convective re-development, Mario will likely be declared a remnant low later this morning. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates. The depression is nearing cool waters and a drier, more stable environment. These conditions should be enough to cause Mario to continue to gradually weaken and open up into a trough within a day or so. The latest intensity and track forecasts are based on the consensus guidance, tilted toward the global models which generally do well at this stage of the tropical cyclone life cycle. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 24.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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