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Tropical Depression Marty Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-24 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Marty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of Marty's center since about 0600 UTC. The cyclone's cloud pattern now consists of some mid-level clouds and mostly low-level cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The current intensity of 30 kt is based on a unanimous Dvorak satellite classification of T1.5/2.5 (25 kt/35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, which has resulted in Marty being downgraded to a tropical depression. Due to the cyclone's future track remaining over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, coupled with additional entrainment of stable low clouds, Marty is now forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low later today. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the trends of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. The initial motion remains westward, or 270/10 kt. The strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the weakening shallow cyclone is expected to keep Marty on a generally westward track over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion thereafter until the cyclone dissipates. The new official forecast track lies near the extreme southern edge of the model guidance envelope, owing to the models' slight poleward bias noted over the past 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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