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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-22 16:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221450 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS...AND IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...BUT IT HAS A DISTINCT WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MEETS THE QUALIFICATIONS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE DEPRESSION HAS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE COULD ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A LOW- TO MODERATE-STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO THE COLDER WATER... STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CYCLONE COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME MODELS MOVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA COAST AND OTHERS TURNING IT SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON DAY 5. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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