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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-31 18:23:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 311622 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 The first visible satellite images this morning indicate that a well-defined center has formed in association with the area of low pressure located well southwest of Mexico. This, along with the increase in convective organization, supports classifying this system as a tropical cyclone. A 1401Z SSMIS overpass indicated that the low-level center was located beneath the convective canopy, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is currently situated over waters of 27-28C and the shear is expected to remain relatively low, so gradual strengthening is forecast through the first 48 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone will move over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in gradual weakening to remnant low status. The NHC intensity prediction is a little above the latest intensity consensus, but not as high as the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models. During the weakening phase, the NHC forecast is below the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/08. However, the track forecast reasoning appears relatively straightforward, as a mid-level ridge is expected to build westward to the north of the cyclone through the forecast period. This should result in a west-northwestward heading, with a bit of a westward bend in the track at days 4 and 5 as the shallow cyclone comes under the influence of the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope near the multi-model consensus. This marks the formation of the eighth tropical cyclone in the basin in July, tying the record set in July of 1985. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1630Z 14.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.9N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 15.7N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z 22.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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